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    既然墨西哥拥有廉价制造业的成本优势,距离美国又很近,为什么没能成为第二个中国呢

    平码四中四公开验证 www.biymp.tw Why can’t Mexico be the new China, given the cost advantages to cheap manufacturing and proximity to the US?

    既然墨西哥拥有廉价制造业的成本优势,距离美国又很近,为什么没能成为第二个中国呢?

     以下是Quora读者的评论:

    Neo YI, B.A. Economics, Nanchang University (2012)

    My brother married a Mexican girl last year and I stayed there for weeks.

    My trip to Mexico is one of the best memories of my life. I was intoxicated by the ubiquitous art of Mexico.

    But I also see the economic differences between Mexico and China.

    I think the inequality between the rich and the poor is a problem. At a certain stage in the development of any society, the rich will begin to abandon the poor. So the security and infrastructure of the rich communities are good, while the poor communities are much worse than the rich communities because of the lack of help.

    The Chinese go nment is working very hard to help the poor. The Chinese go nment has a precise poverty alleviation policy. Every member of the Communist Party is responsible for a poor family and helps them find ways to develop their careers and make money and become rich.

    In Mexico, as in the United States, there are many police in rich places and there are no police in poor places. In turn, the more chaotic places in China, the more police forces the go nment will deploy to maintain law and order. In my hometown, a small, 300 000 population, underdeveloped town, there was no murder in 2018. As a matter of fact, I have a cousin who is a policeman. He is very upset because he can hardly come across a theft. It's hard for him to get promoted.

    In China, the police are the most reliable people. But I was blackmailed by the police in Mexico.

    The security and stability of the social environment are essential to economic development. If the Mexican go nment can tilt more social resources and policies towards the poor and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, there will certainly be better development.

    But then again, Mexico is really beautiful. Mexicans are happy, unlike the Chinese, always worried about the future.

    I miss my Mexican friends. Hope can be there again.

    我哥哥去年娶了一个墨西哥女孩,我在那儿住了几个星期。

    墨西哥之行是我一生中最美好的回忆之一。我陶醉在墨西哥无处不在的艺术中。

    但我也看到了墨西哥和中国之间的经济差异。

    我认为贫富之间的不平等是个大问题。在每个社会发展的某个阶段,富人都会甩开穷人。因此,富裕社区的安全和基础设施是很好的,而贫困社区由于缺乏帮助而比富裕社区差得多。

    中国正在努力帮助穷人。中国有明确的扶贫政策。每个党员都要对一个贫困家庭负责,帮助他们找到发展事业、赚钱致富的方法。

    墨西哥就像美国一样,富裕的地方有很多警察,而在贫民窟则没有警察。相应地,中国越是混乱的地方,政府就会部署越多的警力来维护法律和秩序。在我的家乡,一个30万人口的欠发达小镇,2018年没有发生过一起谋杀案。事实上,我有一个当警察的表哥。他很不高兴,因为几乎没有遇到过小偷,所以很难得到提拔。

    在中国,警察是最可靠的人。但是我被墨西哥的警察敲诈了。

    社会环境的安全与稳定对经济发展至关重要。如果墨西哥政府能够将更多的社会资源和政策向穷人倾斜,缩小贫富差距,那么肯定会有更好的发展。

    不过话说回来,墨西哥真的很美。墨西哥人很幸福,与中国人不同,中国人总是担心未来。

    我想念我的墨西哥朋友。希望我以后有机会再去那儿。

    译文来源:三泰虎  //www.biymp.tw/48797.html  译者:Joyceliu

     

    Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT

    Happen to come from Texas.

    By far, the biggest problem is the drug war. The parts of Mexico that would benefit from manufacturing to the US are places that have been totally devastated by the drug war. It’s really hard to operate a factory when you have to deal with armed gangs and kidnapping. China is a safe place. You can walk the streets, and you can show off your money and nothing bad happens. The border regions of Mexico are not safe places, because the drug gangs will get you, and the go nment doesn’t have a monopoly on force.

    The other problem is that it seems pretty obvious that if Mexico takes the place of China that the US will put trade barriers against Mexico

    很巧,我来自德克萨斯。

    到目前为止,最大的问题是毒品战争。墨西哥的部分地区将从美国的制造业中受益,但这些地区已被毒品战争彻底摧毁。当你不得不对付武装团伙和绑架时,经营工厂真的很难。中国是一个安全的地方。你可以在街上走,你可以炫耀你的富裕,不会发生什么不好的事。墨西哥的边境地区并不安全,因为贩毒团伙会抓住你,而政府对武力无能为力。

    另一个问题是,很明显,如果墨西哥取代中国,美国将对墨西哥设置贸易壁垒。

     

    Michael Modler, M.A. from The George Washington University

    Four important reasons are given, although the list could obviously be expanded.

    1.Mexico does not have a highly successful and entrepreneurial diaspora capable of contributing to its development. If you look at the private investment flows into China that helped turn the country into the “worlds’ factory”, a very large portion of it has come from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore (which all have a dominant ethnic Chinese majority population) and Southeast Asia (where ethnic Chinese minorities dominate the business community to such a degree they are compared to the Jews.). Mexico obviously has a large overseas diaspora, but it is mainly working class and based in the USA. Those people can send small remittance payments to their families, but this does not have the same social and economic impact as large capital investments into business ventures that employ people and make products.

    2.China emergence as a manufacturing powerhouse in the last 30 years was supported by a truly massive surplus in rural labor, which made China a cheap base for simple assembly operations and other labor intensive industries . Once China’s dirt poor and underemployed peasants left the countryside for work in the city, their productivity and income increased, creating all kinds of spillover effects. Mexico and the rest of Latin America may be poor and underdeveloped compared to the US and Canada, but they are comparatively urban societies with much higher wages than China in 80s, 90s and 2000s. Mexico is not really in a position to compete with the likes of China, Vietnam or India for labor intensive manufacturing industries.

    3.Mexico has not been able to overcome its problem with drug cartels and criminal gangs. Obviously, China and other countries have underworlds of their own, but they nowhere close to Mexico’s criminals in terms of their willingness to use violence and they ability to influence institutions via co ption.

    我列出了四个重要的理由,尽管这个清单显然可以继续补充。

    1.墨西哥没有能够促进其发展的成功和具有创业精神的侨民。私人投资流入中国,把中国变成了“世界工厂”,很大一部分就来自香港、台湾、新加坡(这些地区都是华人占主流)和东南亚(华人 主导商业社区)。墨西哥显然有大量海外侨民,但他们主要是工人阶级,生活在美国。这些人可以把小额汇款寄给家人,但这对社会和经济的影响,不如对雇佣员工和生产产品的企业的大规模资本投资。

    2.中国在过去30年里崛起为制造业强国,这得益于农村劳动力的大量过剩,这使得中国成为简单组装和其他劳动密集型产业的廉价基地。中国的赤贫和就业不足的农民一旦离开农村到城市工作,他们的生产力和收入就会提高,产生各种溢出效应。与美国和加拿大相比,墨西哥和拉美其它国家可能比较贫穷和不发达,但他们是相对城市化的社会,在上世纪80年代、90年代和本世纪头十年,他们的工资水平远高于中国。在劳动密集型制造业方面,墨西哥并没有能力与中国、越南或印度等国竞争。

    3.墨西哥一直未能克服贩毒集团和犯罪团伙的问题。显然,中国和其他国家也有各自的地下世界,但在使用暴丽的意愿和通过附败影响当权机关的能力方面,他们与墨西哥的罪犯相去甚远。

     

    David Tufte, works at Southern Utah University

    On one level, Mexico already fits this bill.

    For starters, note that it’s the other way around: can China be the new Mexico? Mexico is smaller than China, but it is richer top to bottom and more advanced.

    Both are already very large economies on the world stage. China, of course, is the 2nd largest. But most people don’t know that Mexico is the 95th percentile for economy size - already bigger than about 190 other countries.

    Outside the U.S., many countries aspire to be either China or Mexico. It’s only next to the U.S. that Mexico seems small and/or poor.

    BTW: my sources say that within China, Mexico is on the very short list of countries that they worry about losing business to

    在某种程度上,墨西哥已经符合这一标准。

    首先,请注意,事实恰恰相反:中国能成为第二个墨西哥吗?墨西哥比中国小,但比中国更富有,也更先进。

    这两个国家在世界舞台上都是非常大的经济体。当然,中国是第二大经济体。但大多数人都不知道,墨西哥经济规模,超过了其他190个国家。

    在美国之外,许多国家希望成为中国或墨西哥。墨西哥看起来只比美国小,比美国穷。

    顺便说一句:我的消息来源说,中国国内普遍认为,墨西哥是他们担心生意被抢走的少数几个国家之一。

     

    Pascal Morimacil, Worker

    Because of infrastructure.

    If you want to open up a factory somewhere, what you are looking for is not just a place with cheap labor, and cheap property prices.

    You need somewhere with roads, airports, harbors, trains, etc to get your raw materials, and then move the finished products. 

    You need workers, and you need workers that are well trained in what you want them to do. 

    You need to make sure that a roving band of bandits will not take over your factory, and that your workers will not constantly be on strike. 

    You need your workers to have somewhere to live, and if it is supposed to be a long term thing, you need them to be able to have families and so on.

    Mexico doesnt have much of that. Not really more than the US anyway.

    But when you need infrastructure, parts and materials, well educated workers, all of that… Then China is starting to look amazing! Because China actually invests in that kind of thing.

    因为基础设施。

    如果你想在某地开一家工厂,你所需的不单单是劳动力廉价、房价便宜的地方。

    你需要一个有着公路、机场、港口、火车等的地方来获取原材料,运输成品。

    你需要工人,你需要受过良好训练的工人。

    你需要确保当地没有四处游荡的强盗来占领你的工厂,工人不会经常罢工。

    你需要让员工有地方住,如果这是一个长期的事情,还要让他们能够组建家庭等。

    墨西哥不具备这么多条件。至少不比美国多。

    但当你需要基础设施、零部件和材料、受过良好教育的工人等等时,中国就变得令人惊叹!因为中国确实在这方面进行了投资。

     

    Lew Weingarth, BsEE Electrical Engineering & Business Strategy, UMR (1981)

    Industry didn’t move overseas to reduce labor costs, it moved to increase profits. Precisely why is a fairly long story, but plain old logic suffices to understand a simple accounting explanation. Start with the contribution of labor in a modern plant, which is under 2% of cost in a high labor cost country like Germany or Japan. This means the MOST you can save on labor is 2%. Now, imagine the cost to ship raw materials to China, transport cross country to factories in EDZs, then ship to the customer. They clearly don’t save enough on labor to justify the hassle. The savings is HUGE tax incentives by the USA to export industry, and HUGE subsidies by China to produce in China. So, yes, Mexico could be the next China, but we’d have to change the corporate subsidies.

    工业转移到海外不是为了降低劳动力成本,而是为了增加利润。确切的原因是一个相当长的故事,但简单的旧逻辑足以理解。先从现代工厂的劳动力贡献说起,在德国或日本这样的劳动力成本高的国家,现代工厂的劳动力贡献不到2%。这意味着你最多可以节省2%的劳动力。现在,想象一下把原材料运到中国,运输到全国各地的工厂,然后运到客户那里的成本。节省下来的是美国对出口工业的巨大税收优惠和中国对在中国生产的巨大补贴。因此,没错,墨西哥可能成为下一个中国,但我们必须改变企业补贴。

     

    Joseph Boyle

    Mexico imports are around ? of China imports. Physical proximity is more advantageous for bulky products. Labor costs have converged somewhat. Some manufacturing has come back to North America as production and shipping costs have shifted.

    墨西哥进口的商品占中国进口商品的?左右。地理上的临近对体积大的产品更有利。劳动力成本已有所提高。随着生产和运输成本的上升,一些制造业工厂已经回流至北美。
     

     

    Andy Si, Finance Manager

    My guess is that Mexico’s strategic location is not optimized to distribute manufactured goods all over the word. Even if manufacturing is cheap in Mexico, the shipping cost would cost more than what China or other SEA countries can charge.

    Mexico has to ship freight to Asia, Europe, Australia, and Africa.

    China can ship by land or freight to the above continents (except Australia), but by freight to the North & South American continent. While the US has a big market, the combination of Asia, Europe, and Africa outscale the other side of the world by a big margin.

    Other factors:

    1.Supply chain network

    2.Infrastructure network to support these manufacturing and shipping port industries.

    3.Investment in additional capital and time to train new workers.

    4.Mexico’s go nment is strangled by the Cartels for the past 2–3 decades.

    5.Product Engineers and other factory technicians. China has a massive amount and skills at their disposal. I’m not sure if Mexico can do that.

    6.Asia and Africa are where the growth is for the next 50 years.

    我的猜测是,墨西哥的战略位置并不适合在全球各地销售制成品。即使墨西哥的制造成本很低,海运成本也会超过中国或其他海洋国家的收费。

    墨西哥必须将货物运往亚洲、欧洲、澳大利亚和非洲。

    中国可以通过陆路或货运到上述大陆(澳大利亚除外),但可以通过货运到北美和南美大陆。尽管美国拥有巨大的市场,但亚洲、欧洲和非洲的市场规模远远超过了世界另一端。

    其他因素:

    1.供应链网络

    2.基础设施网络来支持这些制造业和航运港口产业。

    3.投入额外的资金和时间来培训新员工。

    4.在过去的二、三十年里,墨西哥政府被贩毒集团绑架。

    5.产品工程师和其他工厂技术人员。中国有大量的资源和技能供他们使用。我不确定墨西哥能否做到这一点。

    6.亚洲和非洲是未来50年的增长地区。

     

    Leslie Fish, I'm a musician and writer, and history is my hobby.

    Mexico has been leeching off the US for nearly two centuries, and hasn’t managed to improve itself thereby. The problem is its whole culture of co ption, thieving, nepotism, racism, class bigotry and sexism, which has proven so impervious to change. That’s why, with all the charitable help in the world, Mexico can’t become “the new China”. The best thing the US could do, short of conquering the country and ruling it as strictly as Ataturk did to Turkey, is to cut Mexico off, close the border, and make the country sink or swim on its own resources.

    近两个世纪以来,墨西哥一直在榨取美国的利益,却未能因此而改善自身。问题在于其附败、盗窃、裙带关系、种族主义、阶级偏见和性别歧视的整体文化,事实证明,这些文化对变化是如此无动于衷。这就是为什么,即便拥有世界上所有的慈善帮助,墨西哥也无法成为“新中国”。美国所能做的最好的事情,就是切断与墨西哥的联系,关闭边境,让这个国家靠自己的资源自生自灭,而不是像阿塔图尔克对土耳其那样,征服这个国家并严格统治它。

     

    David Kofh, Physics, MEd at Kofh Publishing Coro (1980-present)

    GM moves factories to Mexico,… but still charges Smericans the same price for the cardbit sells to America!

    Why do Americans want Mexicans to get our jobs, Mexico get the increase in Taxes, Amanda GM makes more money???

    Trump has Tariffs on Chinese companies so that at least American tax payers get something out of these one way deals.

    通用汽车把工厂搬到了墨西哥,但仍然对向美国销售的购车者收取同样的价格。

    为什么美国人想让墨西哥人得到本属于我们的工作,让墨西哥人得到税收的增加,让阿曼达·通用赚到更多的钱?

    特朗普对中国公司征收关税,这样至少美国纳税人可以从这些单向交易中得到一些好处。

    三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载?。?a href="//www.biymp.tw/">首页 > 美国 » 既然墨西哥拥有廉价制造业的成本优势,距离美国又很近,为什么没能成为第二个中国呢

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